Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

The EU and the Refugees: The Way Forward
This paper was prepared for the Prague European Summit. "The refugee crisis can become – in spite of the underlying tragedy – a moment of glory for the European Union. Suffering from crises of both identity and confidence, the EU can find itself again by drawing inspiration from its history and values and renew its purpose at home and abroad. If the EU manages to reform its outdated migration and asylum policies, offering the war refugees a friendly welcome, it will prove that the fears of its weakness are exaggerated and the rumours about its erosion are unfounded. If decisive action is taken by European leaders, the result will be of benefit for both the refugees and the societies as well as economies of the recipient countries. War refugees – and even economic migrants – are not a threat; they are an opportunity for the EU to prove that it still stands firm on the principles of peace, solidarity and openness, on which it had been originally built."

Why should the Visegrad Group support the Iranian Nuclear Deal?
On July 14, 2015 the so-called P 5 + 1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) concluded a historic deal with Iran over its nuclear program. The present paper argues that the Iranian nuclear program and the international controversy over it are derivatives of both the experimental model of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its behaviour, in which it acts as an empire.

A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences
Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

Fostering the Catching-Up Process of Central Europe: The Need for an Innovation-Oriented Cohesion Policy
The future of the so far successful growth model of Central European economies, based on low-to-medium technology sectors, is under threat. The Central European countries have not undertaken sufficient reforms in the area of innovation, education and the labour market. The EU should commit to a stronger conditionality regarding the Cohesion Policy funds to provide a stronger incentive to beneficiary countries that need to enforce reforms and put into effect a better coordination between regional and sectoral policies of the EU. The reforms in the Member States should encompass business support structures together with education institutions to ensure that research incubators have meaningful impact on the competitiveness of their businesses.

Transition Experience 2.0
"Transition Experience 2.0: A new way to close the gap between the Central European human rights and development policies" is the new policy paper by Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň.

Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The prospects of stability in Central Asia after the 2014 withdrawal will be influenced by the developments in Afghanistan. Yet the overall fragility of the states in the region necessitates taking preventive measures. The previous strategies of the terrorist groups in the region allow us to identify a few focal points of strategic importance which must be protected. To achieve this, it is necessary to use private military companies and return Russian border guards to Tajikistan. Also, the Collective Security Treaty Organization must prepare for possible massive security and refugee crises. The implementation of state social policies can be outsourced to NGOs, which shall refrain from any political activity.

What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections
The 2014 Turkish presidential elections have demonstrated that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP were able to overcome their previous political crises during the last, one-year-long eventful period, and they were successful in continuing to mobilise their electorate. Erdogan’s victory at the presidential elections of 10 August 2014 may lead to the introduction of a presidential system and further centralization of power in Turkey. However, it can also be an overture for changes in the opposition. The EU has to keep being involved in Turkish domestic politics, especially in the democratization process, and support the emergence of a more plural Turkish political community.

Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?
The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and  perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.

How Should We Deal with the Discrimination and Dysfunction in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Towards a New European Approach
Bosnia and Herzegovina's internal structure is regarded discriminatory and dysfunctional. The process of European integration is stalled. There is an urgent need to increase both the top-down and the bottomup pressure on the local politicians so that they would pursue the necessary reforms. The top-down pressure on politicians can be enhanced by a rationalisation of external institutional relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, namely by the closure of the Office of the High Representative. The bottom-up pressure on the local political representatives can be improved through societal integration in everyday life. The current trend of the desintegration of common institutions and material structures needs to be countered. Societal integration should be nurtured by improving the means for common education, cargo and transport, private business and enterprise, agricultural production, and trade.

Turmoil in Egypt: a Proxy Cold War among the Gulf States?
The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have played a huge role in the unfolding developments of the Arab Spring, especially in Egypt. Based on many pieces of evidence, we can set up an analytical framework for investigating the transformations of Egyptian politics between 2011 and 2013, according to which the turmoil was basically a proxy cold war fought by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait on one hand, and Qatar on the other. Although the Gulf agreement signed in April 2014 clearly shows the inevitability of the defeat of Qatar, Doha will remain an important player in the region, while the rebound of the Muslim Brotherhood is now unimaginable without the support of the tiny country.