Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences
Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

Zmařené naděje: Kam dál po hodnotící konferenci Smlouvy o nešíření jaderných zbraní?
Ve dnech 27. 4.–22. 5. 2015 se v sídle OSN v New Yorku konala 9. hodnotící konference Smlouvy o nešíření jaderných zbraní (dále smlouva NPT); její výsledek byl neúspěšný. Česká republika, jako nejaderný stát, avšak současně členská země jaderné Severoatlantické aliance, by se měla angažovat při prosazování jaderného odzbrojování kompromisním přístupem známým jako „budování bloků“ building blocks. Souběžně s tím by měla aktivně podporovat proces zdůrazňování humanitárních důsledků použití jaderných zbraní.

Státní bankrot Řecka nepovede k jeho odchodu z eurozóny
Politici i média by měli přestat směšovat „řecký bankrot“ a „odchod z měnové unie“. Scénář státního bankrotu bez opuštění společné měny je zcela reálný, jak ukazuje zkušenost osmi států USA z let 1841–1843. Evropská unie nemůže nijak přinutit řeckou vládu a řecké obyvatelstvo, aby proti své vůli přestali používat euro. Evropská unie by měla soustředit svoji pozornost na řešení řecké bankovní krize, která v důsledku státního bankrotu hrozí. Měnová odluka jako nástroj na řešení bankovní krize nedává smysl ani z pohledu EU, ani z pohledu Řecka. Vyplácení důchodů a platů státních zaměstnanců v drachmách by bylo pro řeckou vládu politickou sebevraždou. „De-euroizace“ řecké ekonomiky by byla bojem s větrnými mlýny.

Fostering the Catching-Up Process of Central Europe: The Need for an Innovation-Oriented Cohesion Policy
The future of the so far successful growth model of Central European economies, based on low-to-medium technology sectors, is under threat. The Central European countries have not undertaken sufficient reforms in the area of innovation, education and the labour market. The EU should commit to a stronger conditionality regarding the Cohesion Policy funds to provide a stronger incentive to beneficiary countries that need to enforce reforms and put into effect a better coordination between regional and sectoral policies of the EU. The reforms in the Member States should encompass business support structures together with education institutions to ensure that research incubators have meaningful impact on the competitiveness of their businesses.

Transition Experience 2.0
"Transition Experience 2.0: A new way to close the gap between the Central European human rights and development policies" is the new policy paper by Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň.

Ensuring the Stability of Central Asia after the 2014 Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The prospects of stability in Central Asia after the 2014 withdrawal will be influenced by the developments in Afghanistan. Yet the overall fragility of the states in the region necessitates taking preventive measures. The previous strategies of the terrorist groups in the region allow us to identify a few focal points of strategic importance which must be protected. To achieve this, it is necessary to use private military companies and return Russian border guards to Tajikistan. Also, the Collective Security Treaty Organization must prepare for possible massive security and refugee crises. The implementation of state social policies can be outsourced to NGOs, which shall refrain from any political activity.

What’s next for Turkey? Lessons of the 2014 presidential elections
The 2014 Turkish presidential elections have demonstrated that Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP were able to overcome their previous political crises during the last, one-year-long eventful period, and they were successful in continuing to mobilise their electorate. Erdogan’s victory at the presidential elections of 10 August 2014 may lead to the introduction of a presidential system and further centralization of power in Turkey. However, it can also be an overture for changes in the opposition. The EU has to keep being involved in Turkish domestic politics, especially in the democratization process, and support the emergence of a more plural Turkish political community.

Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?
The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and  perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.